COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Survey.
In 2019, a novel coronavirus — Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) — was discovered in China. The illness resulting from this virus is a new respiratory disease called coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19). It has been called a pandemic by the World Health Organization.
Below are the analyses of how the pandemic has affected nations globally as of March 30, 2020.
- The top four nations with the highest number of confirmed cases are in the following order: The United States, Italy, Spain, and China
- China has the highest number of recovered cases, followed by Italy and Spain
- Italy has the highest number of death cases, followed by Spain and China.
The three countries most affected by this pandemic are Italy, China, and the United States.
With the high correlation between confirmed cases and deaths, it is interesting to notice that the number of confirmed cases in the US does not match with the number of deaths.
We have to look at the datasets over the period for the US and the two highly affected countries, China and Italy.
- The total number of confirmed cases globally is way much higher than that of the recovered and death cases.
- The ideal situation is to flatten the curve in all of the three cases.
The rate of change of the confirmed cases for the US was almost normal from January 22, till it had a sharp increase on March 18, and surpassed both China and Italy on March 26, making the US the highest number of confirmed cases [1].
The question is what triggered such exponential growth of the confirmed cases in the US? Perhaps, flights coming from Europe and China where the pandemic had its stronghold? Or the social distance not thoroughly implemented by those affected with the virus? Or a failure to take the pandemic seriously as it engulfed China? Or a combination of these factors?
If you look at the graph for the death cases, you will notice that US data is rising to meet that of China, though Italy is still leading in the highest number of deaths.
Will the US surpass China and Italy, judging from the exponential growth? If so, when will that be?
What effective measures should be taken to help infected people recover from the disease in order to flatten the curve in all countries?
China plateaued (flattened the curve) on both the confirmed and death cases around March 1, and has a higher rate of recovery compared to Italy and the US.
They were able to achieve this effectively by:
- Total Lockdown
- Social Distancing
- Efficient Healthcare
And this was strictly enforced by the Chinese government. Nations should follow suit, especially nations without large and efficient healthcare since even those who have this are struggling to contain the viral disease, their healthcare systems overpopulated with the infected patients.
These measures are also enforced in African countries, one of which is Nigeria. Borders have been closed, to prevent entry from other countries. There is a total lockdown in the states, and social distancing is strongly encouraged.
We are to compare Nigeria with China, one of the highly affected countries.
- The curve is almost flattened in both confirmed and death cases in Nigeria.
However, we should not count our blessings (or data) too soon, as complacency and relaxation in the discipline in enforcing the effective measures of lockdown and social distancing will result in us suffering the fate the US, which is now — following a series of missteps — the epicenter of the pandemic.[1]
EFFECTIVE MEASURES TO BE TAKEN TO FLATTEN THE CURVE OF THE PANDEMIC
In Summary:
- Stay at home
- Avoid social gatherings
- Wash your hands regularly.
- Sanitize.
- Avoid touching your face, or nostrils with your hands.
If you have the symptoms of the viral disease — fever, cough or difficulty in breathing — contact your country’s Center for Disease Control (CDC). The toll-free number for Nigeria’s CDC (NCDC) is 0800 970 000 0010. Do not self-medicate.
These may seem to be difficult, but Coronavirus pandemic is real, and it is killing thousands of people daily. You might not want to experience the other option, because you will not live to tell the tale.
The link to the code and datasets can be found in my GitHub profile.
References
[1]. The U.S. Now Leads the World in Confirmed Coronavirus Cases https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/health/usa-coronavirus-cases.html
